Friday, January 13, 2006

Fearful Prediction

It's good to see a Conservative blogger like Dazzlin' Dino ask tough questions of the party he champions. I hope we see more critical analysis in the coming 10 days, especially now that the full platform is out. CBC's Reality Check tonight noted the CPC confirmed that the capital gains exemption would apply to stocks and speculative investments.

I don't know if the Martin team can stop the endless stumbling, but I wouldn't be surprised if we have seen the end of Harper's momentum.

Prediction for final polls before the vote:

CPC: 30 - 34 %
Lib: 28 - 32
NDP: 20 - 24
BQ: 10 - 13
Green: 4 - 6

(Heavy-hearted) prediction for the seat count:

CPC: 130 - 144
Lib: 88 - 96
NDP: 28 - 34
BQ: 46 - 52
Green: 0
Independant: 1

(You always have to have one independant, right? I have lowballed the BQ because I have a funny feeling they will not be able to bring out their voters as well as the other parties. Gomery has more or less lost its ability to get folks hot under the collar. I also presume that, come Jan. 24th, I will look back on this post shaking my head at how wrong I was.)

- 30 -

2 comments:

GoodGrief said...

Jeebus, Scott. I hope you're wrong on the seat count.

CathiefromCanada said...

I hope so, too -- in this scenario, I wouldn't be surprised to see a rump of Chretien Liberals cross the floor to give Harper a majority government without the Bloc.